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Auris Prediction: NDP is giving a Tough Fight to the PCs!

Our social listening-based analysis of the Ontario elections is finally drawing to a close. In the run up to E-day on June 7th, 2018, Ontarians have decidedly moved away from Liberals. There is no buzz whatsoever, leave aside a handful of ridings. Here is what it looks like to us:

  • Liberals are not in the fray. The fight is between NDP and the PC Party
  • Liberals have lost some of their loyal voter base to Andrea Horwath
  • NDP is garnering its votes on the plank of social welfare, healthcare and education policies and a well thought-out and costed platform
  • PC Party still has the momentum, especially in GTA ridings. Lower gas prices, job creation have helped.
  • NDP’s momentum is marred by the perceptions that it follows a “communist” ideology and will lead to further widening of the deficit because of wasteful expenditure.
  • PC Party’s “buck for a beer” perceived as frivolous. People are still asking for a fully costed platform.

Our predictions for some of the ridings where we see a decisive buzz indicates the following:

  • 23-24 ridings decisively for NDP: Ajax, Aurora, Bay of Quinte, Beaches, Brampton North, Brampton East, Brant, Bruce-Grey-Owen-Sound, Cambridge, Carleton-Missisippi Mills, Durham, Guelph, Haldimand-Norfolk, Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes— Brock, Nepean, Kitchener—Waterloo, London West, Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington, Oshawa, Ottawa West, Thornhill, Toronto Centre & Wellington are leaning towards the NDP.
  • 27-29 ridings decisively for the PCs: In contrast, PC Party seems to be ahead in the Barrie, Pickering, Brampton Center, Brampton South, Burlington, Don  Valley, Dufferin-Caledon, Glengarry—Prescott—Russell, all Mississauga ridings, Milton, Nepean-Carleton, Newmarket—Aurora, Niagara Falls, Northumberland—Quinte West, Oakville, Ottawa – Centre, Pickering, Scarborough,  Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, Richmond Hill, St. Catharines, Sault Ste. Marie, Stormont – Dundas – South Glengarry, Sudbury, Timmins—James Bay, Whitby—Oshawa and Willowdale.

Riding by riding details are below:

The fight is close and NDP has greater momentum. PC have legacy and a core voter base. We’d know whether Andrea Horwath edges past Doug Ford to become the premier of the state. Or perhaps, Doug Ford shows resilience and makes it past her.

The Pulse of Voters in Ontario in the run up to the Elections (May 3rd Week)

In our last analysis we showed how the perceptions and responses of Ontarians were changing over the past few weeks, as seen from the lens of the PC Party.

Here’s our latest analysis and we see some dramatic shifts happening at the ground level (and as it manifests in the buzz online).

The summary thus far:

The buzz shows that the NDP and PC Party are head-on-head, with the latter leading in terms of positive buzz.

  • Liberals are lagging behind the NDP and PC Party. This is a significant change versus a week ago.
  • Regions such as Burlington, Brampton, Dufferin—Caledon, Durham, Niagara, Mississauga, Glengarry—Prescott—Russell, Newmarket—Aurora, Oakville, Ottawa, Pickering, Renfrew and Sudbury are learning towards PC Party
  • Several ridings with undecided voters
  • Lack of a fully costed out budget, “beer for a buck” campaign have not worked for PC Party
  • Perceptions of PC Party being anti-gay, anti-poor and anti-immigrant has led voters towards alternatives, primarily NDP.
  • A well thought out plan, perception of being focussed on healthcare, pro-social expenditure and pro-climate change helping NDP.
  • Perception that NDP is “communist” and will worsen the debt crisis is a drag on NDP’s momentum.

Here are the latest trends by riding. The missing ridings are those where we did not see much chatter.

Ontario’s Provincial Elections – What do People Want?

We put Auris, our AI based consumer insights engine to the task of identifying key issues which people are discussing in each riding of Ontario. We wanted to monitor how the issues people talk about change in the run up to the elections in June. We picked the PC Party as the anchor (we view the data from the lens of this party) because they seem to be leading as per the latest polls.

Some great insights emerge about a) what really matters to people, b) what messages resonate more and c) what issues concern them. These are changing over time . We will showcase what we see by analyzing the data which is already out there.

In summary:

  • There’s a positive reception to the pitch of accountability and responsibility.
  • Citizens of Ontario are positively engaging in the discussions that affect them directly – transportation, healthcare, educational reforms, climate change, taxes and rent control.
  • We capture perception issues as well – the perceptions of the party reducing healthcare and welfare budgets and being anti-immigration.
  • The buzz has shifted from the nomination process to actual issues and the tempo has increased with meetings and announcement of policies on important matters.

Not all ridings are abuzz on social platforms, so you’d find those ridings missing in here. Note that most of the chatter is on Twitter, though there’s chatter on Facebook pages as well as forums. Auris ingests all of the chatter and churns out relevant insights.

 

Ontario elections buzz map

A visual showing the issues by riding for the two weeks is shown here. This helps visualize the issues and their relative importance.

Ontario people issues tag cloud