Auris Prediction: NDP is giving a Tough Fight to the PCs!

Our social listening-based analysis of the Ontario elections is finally drawing to a close. In the run up to E-day on June 7th, 2018, Ontarians have decidedly moved away from Liberals. There is no buzz whatsoever, leave aside a handful of ridings. Here is what it looks like to us:

  • Liberals are not in the fray. The fight is between NDP and the PC Party
  • Liberals have lost some of their loyal voter base to Andrea Horwath
  • NDP is garnering its votes on the plank of social welfare, healthcare and education policies and a well thought-out and costed platform
  • PC Party still has the momentum, especially in GTA ridings. Lower gas prices, job creation have helped.
  • NDP’s momentum is marred by the perceptions that it follows a “communist” ideology and will lead to further widening of the deficit because of wasteful expenditure.
  • PC Party’s “buck for a beer” perceived as frivolous. People are still asking for a fully costed platform.

Our predictions for some of the ridings where we see a decisive buzz indicates the following:

  • 23-24 ridings decisively for NDP: Ajax, Aurora, Bay of Quinte, Beaches, Brampton North, Brampton East, Brant, Bruce-Grey-Owen-Sound, Cambridge, Carleton-Missisippi Mills, Durham, Guelph, Haldimand-Norfolk, Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes— Brock, Nepean, Kitchener—Waterloo, London West, Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington, Oshawa, Ottawa West, Thornhill, Toronto Centre & Wellington are leaning towards the NDP.
  • 27-29 ridings decisively for the PCs: In contrast, PC Party seems to be ahead in the Barrie, Pickering, Brampton Center, Brampton South, Burlington, Don  Valley, Dufferin-Caledon, Glengarry—Prescott—Russell, all Mississauga ridings, Milton, Nepean-Carleton, Newmarket—Aurora, Niagara Falls, Northumberland—Quinte West, Oakville, Ottawa – Centre, Pickering, Scarborough,  Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, Richmond Hill, St. Catharines, Sault Ste. Marie, Stormont – Dundas – South Glengarry, Sudbury, Timmins—James Bay, Whitby—Oshawa and Willowdale.

Riding by riding details are below:

The fight is close and NDP has greater momentum. PC have legacy and a core voter base. We’d know whether Andrea Horwath edges past Doug Ford to become the premier of the state. Or perhaps, Doug Ford shows resilience and makes it past her.